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Max Lee v Robert Andrew Garcia (Wed 29 Aug 2018)

Match won by Max Lee. Result: 11-6,11-5,5-11,5-11,11-3.

Starting level for Max Lee: 41,509, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Robert Andrew Garcia: 15,038, level confidence: 61%.
Max Lee to win as he is currently playing 176% better than Robert Andrew Garcia.

Max Lee won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Max Lee played 12% better than Robert Andrew Garcia in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Max Lee was taking it easy by anything up to 22%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 25,443 and 41,509 without affecting his level.

As Max Lee has played below his allowed range at 20,734, his level reduction is 23% before damping. On the assumption that Max Lee would normally have been playing at level 32,498 (based on typical behaviour), Robert Andrew Garcia played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 39%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 22% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Max Lee changes to -9.7% and Robert Andrew Garcia changes to +22%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Max Lee becomes -2.4% and for Robert Andrew Garcia becomes +5.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Asian Team Games Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Max Lee: 89%, Robert Andrew Garcia: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Max Lee: 57%, Robert Andrew Garcia: 50%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Max Lee: 40,481, level confidence: 57%.
Final level for Robert Andrew Garcia: 15,817, level confidence: 50%.