Adam Auckland v Mark Fuller (Tue 28 Aug 2018)
Match won by Adam Auckland. Result: 11-6,11-8,4-11,11-3.
Starting level for
Adam Auckland:
25,530, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for
Mark Fuller:
19,443, level confidence: 67%.
Adam Auckland to win as he is currently playing
31% better than Mark Fuller.
Adam Auckland won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adam Auckland played
27% better than Mark Fuller in this match.
In this case, Adam Auckland played at level 24,840 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Adam Auckland would normally have been playing at level 24,918 (based on typical behaviour), Mark Fuller played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.3%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adam Auckland changes to 0% and Mark Fuller changes to 0%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adam Auckland becomes 0% and for Mark Fuller becomes 0%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Prague Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adam Auckland: 77%, Mark Fuller: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adam Auckland: 76%, Mark Fuller: 81%.
Final level for Adam Auckland:
25,530, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Mark Fuller:
19,464, level confidence: 81%.