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Borja Golan v Yuri Farneti (Tue 28 Aug 2018)

Match won by Borja Golan. Result: 11-4,14-12,11-8.

Starting level for Borja Golan: 43,782, level confidence: 28%.
Starting level for Yuri Farneti: 18,988, level confidence: 55%.
Borja Golan to win as he is currently playing 131% better than Yuri Farneti.

Borja Golan won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Borja Golan played 52% better than Yuri Farneti in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Borja Golan was taking it easy by anything up to 16%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 30,691 and 43,782 without affecting his level.

As Borja Golan has played below his allowed range at 29,728, his level reduction is 3.2% before damping. On the assumption that Borja Golan would normally have been playing at level 36,657 (based on typical behaviour), Yuri Farneti played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 13%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.1% and 8.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Borja Golan changes to -2.1% and Yuri Farneti changes to +4.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Borja Golan becomes -0.8% and for Yuri Farneti becomes +1.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Individual Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Borja Golan: 53%, Yuri Farneti: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Borja Golan: 43%, Yuri Farneti: 60%.

Final level for Borja Golan: 43,435, level confidence: 43%.
Final level for Yuri Farneti: 19,288, level confidence: 60%.