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Raphael Kandra v Aqeel Rehman (Tue 28 Aug 2018)

Match won by Raphael Kandra. Result: 9-11,11-5,11-6,11-4.

Starting level for Raphael Kandra: 47,000, level confidence: 31%.
Starting level for Aqeel Rehman: 22,275, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Raphael Kandra to win as he is currently playing 111% better than Aqeel Rehman.

Raphael Kandra won 75% of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 62% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raphael Kandra played 37% better than Aqeel Rehman in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Raphael Kandra was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 34,912 and 47,000 without affecting his level.

As Raphael Kandra has played below his allowed range at 32,647, his level reduction is 6.9% before damping. On the assumption that Raphael Kandra would normally have been playing at level 40,508 (based on typical behaviour), Aqeel Rehman played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 15%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.7% and 10.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra changes to -4.7% and Aqeel Rehman changes to +4.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra becomes -1.4% and for Aqeel Rehman becomes +1.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Individual Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raphael Kandra: 55%, Aqeel Rehman: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raphael Kandra: 45%, Aqeel Rehman: 68%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Raphael Kandra: 46,252, level confidence: 45%.
Final level for Aqeel Rehman: 22,675, level confidence: 68%.