Adam Auckland v Matias Tuomi (Mon 27 Aug 2018)
Match won by Adam Auckland. Result: 7-11,12-10,8-11,11-5,11-8.
Starting level for
Adam Auckland:
26,175, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for
Matias Tuomi:
14,896, level confidence: 44%.
Adam Auckland to win as he is currently playing
76% better than Matias Tuomi.
Adam Auckland won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adam Auckland played
10% better than Matias Tuomi in this match.
As Adam Auckland has played below his allowed range at 18,925, his level reduction is 16% before damping. On the assumption that Adam Auckland would normally have been playing at level 23,949 (based on typical behaviour), Matias Tuomi played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 21%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 16% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adam Auckland changes to -8.8% and Matias Tuomi changes to +16%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adam Auckland becomes -2.4% and for Matias Tuomi becomes +4.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Prague Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adam Auckland: 75%, Matias Tuomi: 66%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adam Auckland: 60%, Matias Tuomi: 52%.
Final level for Adam Auckland:
25,562, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Matias Tuomi:
15,503, level confidence: 52%.