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Adam Auckland v Matias Tuomi (Mon 27 Aug 2018)

Match won by Adam Auckland. Result: 7-11,12-10,8-11,11-5,11-8.

Starting level for Adam Auckland: 26,175, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Matias Tuomi: 14,896, level confidence: 44%.
Adam Auckland to win as he is currently playing 76% better than Matias Tuomi.

Adam Auckland won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adam Auckland played 10% better than Matias Tuomi in this match.

As Adam Auckland has played below his allowed range at 18,925, his level reduction is 16% before damping. On the assumption that Adam Auckland would normally have been playing at level 23,949 (based on typical behaviour), Matias Tuomi played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 21%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 16% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adam Auckland changes to -8.8% and Matias Tuomi changes to +16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adam Auckland becomes -2.4% and for Matias Tuomi becomes +4.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Prague Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adam Auckland: 75%, Matias Tuomi: 66%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adam Auckland: 60%, Matias Tuomi: 52%.

Final level for Adam Auckland: 25,562, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Matias Tuomi: 15,503, level confidence: 52%.