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Raphael Kandra v Michael Haunschmid (Mon 27 Aug 2018)

Match won by Raphael Kandra. Result: 11-2,11-7,11-3.

Starting level for Raphael Kandra: 47,069, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Michael Haunschmid: 2,765, level confidence: 20%.
Raphael Kandra to win as he is currently playing 1602% better than Michael Haunschmid.

Raphael Kandra won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raphael Kandra played 175% better than Michael Haunschmid in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Raphael Kandra was taking it easy by anything up to 69%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 4,608 and 47,069 without affecting his level.

In this case, Raphael Kandra played at level 10,582 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Raphael Kandra would normally have been playing at level 14,728 (based on typical behaviour), Michael Haunschmid played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 39%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 8.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra changes to 0% and Michael Haunschmid changes to +8.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra becomes 0% and for Michael Haunschmid becomes +3.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Individual Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raphael Kandra: 77%, Michael Haunschmid: 45%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raphael Kandra: 31%, Michael Haunschmid: 18%.

Final level for Raphael Kandra: 47,069, level confidence: 31%.
Final level for Michael Haunschmid: 2,872, level confidence: 18%.