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Todd Harrity v Cameron Stafford (Sun 26 Aug 2018)

Match won by Todd Harrity. Result: 11-5,11-6,11-7.

Starting level for Todd Harrity: 31,892, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Cameron Stafford: 13,825, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Todd Harrity to win as he is currently playing 131% better than Cameron Stafford.

Todd Harrity won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Todd Harrity played 83% better than Cameron Stafford in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Todd Harrity was taking it easy by anything up to 16%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 22,349 and 31,892 without affecting his level.

In this case, Todd Harrity played at level 26,013 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Todd Harrity would normally have been playing at level 26,697 (based on typical behaviour), Cameron Stafford played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Todd Harrity changes to 0% and Cameron Stafford changes to +1.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Todd Harrity becomes 0% and for Cameron Stafford becomes +0.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Pan American Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Todd Harrity: 86%, Cameron Stafford: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Todd Harrity: 77%, Cameron Stafford: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Todd Harrity: 31,844, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Cameron Stafford: 13,904, level confidence: 81%.