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Adam Auckland v Hasnaat Farooqi (Sun 26 Aug 2018)

Match won by Adam Auckland. Result: 11-1,11-6,11-9.

Starting level for Adam Auckland: 26,211, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for Hasnaat Farooqi: 7,445, level confidence: 56%.
Adam Auckland to win as he is currently playing 252% better than Hasnaat Farooqi.

Adam Auckland won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adam Auckland played 106% better than Hasnaat Farooqi in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Adam Auckland was taking it easy by anything up to 30%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 12,894 and 26,211 without affecting his level.

In this case, Adam Auckland played at level 16,802 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Adam Auckland would normally have been playing at level 18,384 (based on typical behaviour), Hasnaat Farooqi played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adam Auckland changes to 0% and Hasnaat Farooqi changes to +4.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adam Auckland becomes 0% and for Hasnaat Farooqi becomes +2.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Prague Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adam Auckland: 75%, Hasnaat Farooqi: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adam Auckland: 57%, Hasnaat Farooqi: 57%.

Final level for Adam Auckland: 26,211, level confidence: 57%.
Final level for Hasnaat Farooqi: 7,600, level confidence: 57%.