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Todd Harrity v Edgar Ramirez (Sat 25 Aug 2018)

Match won by Todd Harrity. Result: 11-5,11-4,11-4.

Starting level for Todd Harrity: 32,002, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Edgar Ramirez: 11,035, level confidence: 56%.
Todd Harrity to win as he is currently playing 190% better than Edgar Ramirez.

Todd Harrity won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Todd Harrity played 154% better than Edgar Ramirez in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Todd Harrity was taking it easy by anything up to 23%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 18,828 and 32,002 without affecting his level.

In this case, Todd Harrity played at level 28,012 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Edgar Ramirez is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Todd Harrity: 79%, Edgar Ramirez: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Todd Harrity: 74%, Edgar Ramirez: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Todd Harrity: 31,954, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Edgar Ramirez: 11,018, level confidence: 70%.