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Greg Lobban v Rory Stewart (Fri 24 Aug 2018)

Match won by Greg Lobban. Result: 11-4,11-1,11-2.

Starting level for Greg Lobban: 36,818, level confidence: 51%.
Starting level for Rory Stewart: 21,135, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Greg Lobban to win as he is currently playing 74% better than Rory Stewart.

Greg Lobban won all of the games and 83% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 371% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Greg Lobban played 371% better than Rory Stewart in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Greg Lobban actually played at a level of 60,567 and Rory Stewart at a level of 12,848. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 65% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 46% and 46% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Greg Lobban changes to +46% and Rory Stewart changes to -26%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Greg Lobban becomes +8.2% and for Rory Stewart becomes -5.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Scottish Nationals' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Greg Lobban is limited to +5.4% and Rory Stewart is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Greg Lobban: 72%, Rory Stewart: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Greg Lobban: 44%, Rory Stewart: 54%.

A final adjustment of +1.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Greg Lobban: 38,836, level confidence: 44%.
Final level for Rory Stewart: 20,661, level confidence: 54%.