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Max Lee v Sajad Zareian (Thu 23 Aug 2018)

Match won by Max Lee. Result: 11-6,11-5,11-5.

Starting level for Max Lee: 42,754, level confidence: 53%.
Starting level for Sajad Zareian: 15,066, level confidence: 58%.
Max Lee to win as he is currently playing 184% better than Sajad Zareian.

Max Lee won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Max Lee played 106% better than Sajad Zareian in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Max Lee was taking it easy by anything up to 23%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 25,616 and 42,754 without affecting his level.

In this case, Max Lee played at level 32,068 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Max Lee would normally have been playing at level 33,094 (based on typical behaviour), Sajad Zareian played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Max Lee changes to 0% and Sajad Zareian changes to +1.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Max Lee becomes 0% and for Sajad Zareian becomes +0.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Asian Games' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Max Lee: 73%, Sajad Zareian: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Max Lee: 62%, Sajad Zareian: 65%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Max Lee: 42,690, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Sajad Zareian: 15,162, level confidence: 65%.