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Greg Lobban v Unknown player 200143 (Wed 22 Aug 2018)

Match won by Greg Lobban. Result: 11-7,11-1,11-2.

Starting level for Greg Lobban: 36,677, level confidence: 53%.
Starting level for Unknown player 200143: 5,692, level confidence: 48%.
Greg Lobban to win as he is currently playing 544% better than Unknown player 200143.

Greg Lobban won all of the games and 77% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Greg Lobban played 230% better than Unknown player 200143 in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Greg Lobban was taking it easy by anything up to 49%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 9,487 and 36,677 without affecting his level.

In this case, Greg Lobban played at level 18,784 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Unknown player 200143 is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Greg Lobban: 73%, Unknown player 200143: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Greg Lobban: 52%, Unknown player 200143: 49%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Greg Lobban: 36,769, level confidence: 52%.
Final level for Unknown player 200143: 5,706, level confidence: 49%.