SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Jordan Hardwick v Joel Makin (Mon 20 Aug 2018)

Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 4-11,5-11,8-11.

Starting level for Jordan Hardwick: 8,180, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Joel Makin: 44,828, level confidence: 55%.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing 448% better than Jordan Hardwick.

Joel Makin won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played 94% better than Jordan Hardwick in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Joel Makin was taking it easy by anything up to 45%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 11,070 and 44,828 without affecting his level.

In this case, Joel Makin played at level 19,813 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Joel Makin would normally have been playing at level 24,722 (based on typical behaviour), Jordan Hardwick played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 25%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 9.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Makin changes to 0% and Jordan Hardwick changes to +7.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Makin becomes 0% and for Jordan Hardwick becomes +2.7%.

Given Jordan Hardwick's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 23% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Warwickshire Summer League 2018' so the adjustment for Joel Makin is 0% and for Jordan Hardwick is +1.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 74%, Jordan Hardwick: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 44%, Jordan Hardwick: 51%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jordan Hardwick: 8,316, level confidence: 51%.
Final level for Joel Makin: 44,940, level confidence: 44%.