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Richie Fallows v Declan James (Fri 10 Aug 2018)

Match won by Richie Fallows. Result: 11-8,5-11,7-11,11-0,12-10.

Starting level for Richie Fallows: 29,278, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Declan James: 36,158, level confidence: 60%.
Declan James to win as he is currently playing 23% better than Richie Fallows.

Richie Fallows won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richie Fallows played 11% better than Declan James in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Richie Fallows actually played at a level of 34,318 and Declan James at a level of 30,848. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richie Fallows changes to +15% and Declan James changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richie Fallows becomes +3.6% and for Declan James becomes -3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Cleethorpes Invitational' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richie Fallows: 77%, Declan James: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richie Fallows: 66%, Declan James: 66%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Richie Fallows: 30,306, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Declan James: 35,033, level confidence: 66%.