Rex Hedrick v Sion Wiggin (Thu 09 Aug 2018)
Match won by Rex Hedrick. Result: 11-6,11-6,11-4.
Starting level for
Rex Hedrick:
34,089, level confidence: 53%.
Starting level for
Sion Wiggin:
9,644, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Rex Hedrick to win as he is currently playing
253% better than Sion Wiggin.
Rex Hedrick won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rex Hedrick played
106% better than Sion Wiggin in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Rex Hedrick was taking it easy by anything up to 30%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 16,703 and 34,089 without affecting his level.
In this case, Rex Hedrick played at level 21,786 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Rex Hedrick would normally have been playing at level 23,862 (based on typical behaviour), Sion Wiggin played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.5%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 5% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rex Hedrick changes to 0% and Sion Wiggin changes to +3.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rex Hedrick becomes 0% and for Sion Wiggin becomes +1.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Bega Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rex Hedrick: 73%, Sion Wiggin: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rex Hedrick: 55%, Sion Wiggin: 65%.
Final level for Rex Hedrick:
34,089, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Sion Wiggin:
9,802, level confidence: 65%.