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Joshua Masters v Joel Makin (Sun 05 Aug 2018)

Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 4-11,7-11,10-12.

Starting level for Joshua Masters: 29,092, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Joel Makin: 42,298, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing 45% better than Joshua Masters.

Joel Makin won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 62% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played 62% better than Joshua Masters in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joel Makin actually played at a level of 44,635 and Joshua Masters at a level of 27,569. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.5% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.6% and 4.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Makin changes to +3.6% and Joshua Masters changes to -4.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Makin becomes +1.2% and for Joshua Masters becomes -1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Kent Thanet Open 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 85%, Joshua Masters: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 80%, Joshua Masters: 72%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joshua Masters: 28,895, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Joel Makin: 42,571, level confidence: 80%.