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Rex Hedrick v Ryunosuke Tsukue (Fri 03 Aug 2018)

Match won by Rex Hedrick. Result: 11-8,11-1,11-2.

Starting level for Rex Hedrick: 29,308, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Ryunosuke Tsukue: 23,948, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Rex Hedrick to win as he is currently playing 22% better than Ryunosuke Tsukue.

Rex Hedrick won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rex Hedrick played 200% better than Ryunosuke Tsukue in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rex Hedrick actually played at a level of 45,887 and Ryunosuke Tsukue at a level of 15,296. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 57% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rex Hedrick changes to +50% and Ryunosuke Tsukue changes to -44%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rex Hedrick becomes +9.2% and for Ryunosuke Tsukue becomes -8.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Australia Incorporating Victorian Graded Open Championships 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Rex Hedrick is limited to +5.8% and Ryunosuke Tsukue is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rex Hedrick: 81%, Ryunosuke Tsukue: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rex Hedrick: 51%, Ryunosuke Tsukue: 54%.

A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rex Hedrick: 31,032, level confidence: 51%.
Final level for Ryunosuke Tsukue: 23,141, level confidence: 54%.