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Rex Hedrick v Ryan Pasqual (Thu 02 Aug 2018)

Match won by Rex Hedrick. Result: 11-5,11-0,11-3.

Starting level for Rex Hedrick: 28,391, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Ryan Pasqual: 10,331, level confidence: 69%.
Rex Hedrick to win as he is currently playing 175% better than Ryan Pasqual.

Rex Hedrick won all of the games and 80% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 313% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rex Hedrick played 313% better than Ryan Pasqual in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rex Hedrick actually played at a level of 34,784 and Ryan Pasqual at a level of 8,432. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rex Hedrick changes to +13% and Ryan Pasqual changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rex Hedrick becomes +3.1% and for Ryan Pasqual becomes -3.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Australia Incorporating Victorian Graded Open Championships 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rex Hedrick: 80%, Ryan Pasqual: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rex Hedrick: 65%, Ryan Pasqual: 68%.

A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rex Hedrick: 29,285, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Ryan Pasqual: 10,124, level confidence: 68%.