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Henry Withrington v Joel Makin (Sat 04 Aug 2018)

Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 2-11,2-11,2-11.

Starting level for Henry Withrington: 5,460, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Joel Makin: 42,525, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing 679% better than Henry Withrington.

Joel Makin won all of the games and 85% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 450% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played 450% better than Henry Withrington in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Joel Makin was taking it easy by anything up to 54%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 9,100 and 42,525 without affecting his level.

In this case, Joel Makin played at level 30,030 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Henry Withrington is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 84%, Henry Withrington: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 70%, Henry Withrington: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Henry Withrington: 5,452, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Joel Makin: 42,461, level confidence: 70%.