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Miguel Rodriguez v Shawn Simpson (Tue 24 Jul 2018)

Match won by Miguel Rodriguez. Result: 11-4,11-6,11-5.

Starting level for Miguel Rodriguez: 53,422, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Shawn Simpson: 6,380, level confidence: 40%.
Miguel Rodriguez to win as he is currently playing 737% better than Shawn Simpson.

Miguel Rodriguez won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Miguel Rodriguez played 120% better than Shawn Simpson in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Miguel Rodriguez was taking it easy by anything up to 55%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 10,634 and 53,422 without affecting his level.

In this case, Miguel Rodriguez played at level 18,290 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Miguel Rodriguez would normally have been playing at level 23,834 (based on typical behaviour), Shawn Simpson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 30%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 9.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Miguel Rodriguez changes to 0% and Shawn Simpson changes to +9.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Miguel Rodriguez becomes 0% and for Shawn Simpson becomes +3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Central America Caribbean Team Games Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Miguel Rodriguez: 84%, Shawn Simpson: 63%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Miguel Rodriguez: 43%, Shawn Simpson: 32%.

Final level for Miguel Rodriguez: 53,422, level confidence: 43%.
Final level for Shawn Simpson: 6,598, level confidence: 32%.