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Miguel Rodriguez v Bruce Burrowes (Thu 19 Jul 2018)

Match won by Miguel Rodriguez. Result: 11-7,11-8,11-3.

Starting level for Miguel Rodriguez: 53,985, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Bruce Burrowes: 5,843, level confidence: 41%.
Miguel Rodriguez to win as he is currently playing 824% better than Bruce Burrowes.

Miguel Rodriguez won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Miguel Rodriguez played 83% better than Bruce Burrowes in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Miguel Rodriguez was taking it easy by anything up to 58%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 9,739 and 53,985 without affecting his level.

In this case, Miguel Rodriguez played at level 15,672 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Miguel Rodriguez would normally have been playing at level 22,929 (based on typical behaviour), Bruce Burrowes played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 46%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Miguel Rodriguez changes to 0% and Bruce Burrowes changes to +13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Miguel Rodriguez becomes 0% and for Bruce Burrowes becomes +4.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Central America Caribbean Games' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Miguel Rodriguez: 81%, Bruce Burrowes: 64%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Miguel Rodriguez: 36%, Bruce Burrowes: 28%.

Final level for Miguel Rodriguez: 53,985, level confidence: 36%.
Final level for Bruce Burrowes: 6,105, level confidence: 28%.