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Rohan Madahar v Barrie McLelland (Mon 16 Jul 2018)

Match won by Rohan Madahar. Result: 11-3,11-6,11-6.

Starting level for Rohan Madahar: 2,226, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Barrie McLelland: 1,824, level confidence: 62%.
Rohan Madahar to win as he is currently playing 22% better than Barrie McLelland.

Rohan Madahar won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rohan Madahar played 120% better than Barrie McLelland in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rohan Madahar actually played at a level of 2,989 and Barrie McLelland at a level of 1,359. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 34% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rohan Madahar changes to +30% and Barrie McLelland changes to -31%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rohan Madahar becomes +11.6% and for Barrie McLelland becomes -13%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Warwickshire Summer League 2018' so the adjustment for Rohan Madahar is +7.5% and for Barrie McLelland is -7.8%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Barrie McLelland is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rohan Madahar: 79%, Barrie McLelland: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rohan Madahar: 59%, Barrie McLelland: 58%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rohan Madahar: 2,390, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Barrie McLelland: 1,735, level confidence: 58%.