Barrie McLelland v Aiden Templeton-Browne (Mon 09 Jul 2018)
Match won by Aiden Templeton-Browne. Result: 11-8,3-11,11-9,8-11,10-12.
Starting level for
Barrie McLelland:
1,796, level confidence: 44%.
Starting level for
Aiden Templeton-Browne:
2,207, level confidence: 54%.
Aiden Templeton-Browne to win as he is currently playing
23% better than Barrie McLelland.
Aiden Templeton-Browne won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Aiden Templeton-Browne played
12% better than Barrie McLelland in this match.
As Aiden Templeton-Browne has played below his allowed range at 2,074, his level reduction is 3% before damping. On the assumption that Aiden Templeton-Browne would normally have been playing at level 2,177 (based on typical behaviour), Barrie McLelland played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4%.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Aiden Templeton-Browne changes to -2.2% and Barrie McLelland changes to +3.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Aiden Templeton-Browne becomes -1.6% and for Barrie McLelland becomes +2.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Warwickshire Summer League 2018' so the adjustment for Aiden Templeton-Browne is -1.1% and for Barrie McLelland is +1.7%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Aiden Templeton-Browne: 73%, Barrie McLelland: 66%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Aiden Templeton-Browne: 70%, Barrie McLelland: 63%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Barrie McLelland:
1,824, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Aiden Templeton-Browne:
2,181, level confidence: 70%.