Richard Davies v Stuart Lipscombe (Thu 05 Jul 2018)
Match won by Stuart Lipscombe. Result: 7-11,12-10,6-11,5-11.
Starting level for
Richard Davies:
3,164, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for
Stuart Lipscombe:
3,819, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Stuart Lipscombe to win as he is currently playing
21% better than Richard Davies.
Stuart Lipscombe won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stuart Lipscombe played
31% better than Richard Davies in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stuart Lipscombe actually played at a level of
3,979 and Richard Davies at a level of
3,037. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.2% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Lipscombe changes to +2.9% and Richard Davies changes to -3.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Lipscombe becomes +1.8% and for Richard Davies becomes -2.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Suffolk Summer League 2018' so the adjustment for Stuart Lipscombe is +1.2% and for Richard Davies is -1.5%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Lipscombe: 87%, Richard Davies: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Lipscombe: 84%, Richard Davies: 73%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Richard Davies:
3,113, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Stuart Lipscombe:
3,858, level confidence: 84%.