SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Louis Drakes v Alex Preston (Tue 19 Jun 2018)

Match won by Alex Preston. Result: 12-15,13-15,7-15.

Starting level for Louis Drakes: 3,323, level confidence: 27%.
Starting level for Alex Preston: 6,655, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Alex Preston to win as he is currently playing 100% better than Louis Drakes.

Alex Preston won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alex Preston played 45% better than Louis Drakes in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Alex Preston was taking it easy by anything up to 12%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 4,871 and 6,655 without affecting his level.

As Alex Preston has played below his allowed range at 4,851, his level reduction is 0.4% before damping. On the assumption that Alex Preston would normally have been playing at level 5,827 (based on typical behaviour), Louis Drakes played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 6.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alex Preston changes to 0% and Louis Drakes changes to +6.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alex Preston becomes -0.1% and for Louis Drakes becomes +3.2%.

Given Alex Preston's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2018' so the adjustment for Alex Preston is 0% and for Louis Drakes is +2.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alex Preston: 89%, Louis Drakes: 52%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alex Preston: 76%, Louis Drakes: 44%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Louis Drakes: 3,387, level confidence: 44%.
Final level for Alex Preston: 6,643, level confidence: 76%.