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Stuart Lipscombe v Grant Bryant (Thu 21 Jun 2018)

Match won by Stuart Lipscombe. Result: 11-7,11-7,11-9.

Starting level for Stuart Lipscombe: 3,687, level confidence: 90%. Set manually.
Starting level for Grant Bryant: 3,474, level confidence: 60%.
Stuart Lipscombe to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Grant Bryant.

Stuart Lipscombe won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stuart Lipscombe played 47% better than Grant Bryant in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stuart Lipscombe actually played at a level of 4,343 and Grant Bryant at a level of 2,949. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Lipscombe changes to +11% and Grant Bryant changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Lipscombe becomes +4.5% and for Grant Bryant becomes -6.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Suffolk Summer League 2018' so the adjustment for Stuart Lipscombe is +2.9% and for Grant Bryant is -4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Lipscombe: 95%, Grant Bryant: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Lipscombe: 81%, Grant Bryant: 65%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Stuart Lipscombe: 3,789, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Grant Bryant: 3,334, level confidence: 65%.