Ivan Yuen v Rex Hedrick (Sun 24 Jun 2018)
Match won by Ivan Yuen. Result: 11-7,7-11,13-11,11-8.
Starting level for
Ivan Yuen:
29,874, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Rex Hedrick:
32,434, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Rex Hedrick to win as he is currently playing
9% better than Ivan Yuen.
Ivan Yuen won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 14% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ivan Yuen played
21% better than Rex Hedrick in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ivan Yuen actually played at a level of
34,270 and Rex Hedrick at a level of
28,273. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ivan Yuen changes to +14% and Rex Hedrick changes to -14%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ivan Yuen becomes +3.2% and for Rex Hedrick becomes -3.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Nz Southern Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ivan Yuen: 91%, Rex Hedrick: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ivan Yuen: 79%, Rex Hedrick: 78%.
A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Ivan Yuen:
30,765, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Rex Hedrick:
31,483, level confidence: 78%.