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Rex Hedrick v Josh Larkin (Sat 23 Jun 2018)

Match won by Rex Hedrick. Result: 6-11,11-3,11-8,11-4.

Starting level for Rex Hedrick: 32,666, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Josh Larkin: 22,214, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Rex Hedrick to win as he is currently playing 47% better than Josh Larkin.

Rex Hedrick won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rex Hedrick played 33% better than Josh Larkin in this match.

As Rex Hedrick has played below his allowed range at 29,718, his level reduction is 0.4% before damping. On the assumption that Rex Hedrick would normally have been playing at level 31,219 (based on typical behaviour), Josh Larkin played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.3% and 2.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rex Hedrick changes to -0.3% and Josh Larkin changes to +1.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rex Hedrick becomes -0.1% and for Josh Larkin becomes +0.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Nz Southern Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rex Hedrick: 84%, Josh Larkin: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rex Hedrick: 80%, Josh Larkin: 86%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rex Hedrick: 32,434, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Josh Larkin: 22,514, level confidence: 86%.