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Rex Hedrick v Addeen Idrakie (Fri 22 Jun 2018)

Match won by Rex Hedrick. Result: 11-5,13-11,11-4.

Starting level for Rex Hedrick: 32,441, level confidence: 52%.
Starting level for Addeen Idrakie: 19,390, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Rex Hedrick to win as he is currently playing 67% better than Addeen Idrakie.

Rex Hedrick won all of the games and 64% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 75% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rex Hedrick played 75% better than Addeen Idrakie in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rex Hedrick actually played at a level of 33,178 and Addeen Idrakie at a level of 18,959. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.3% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.8% and 1.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rex Hedrick changes to +1.8% and Addeen Idrakie changes to -1.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rex Hedrick becomes +0.7% and for Addeen Idrakie becomes -0.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Nz Southern Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rex Hedrick: 72%, Addeen Idrakie: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rex Hedrick: 70%, Addeen Idrakie: 85%.

Final level for Rex Hedrick: 32,666, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Addeen Idrakie: 19,290, level confidence: 85%.