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Neal Brooker v Jahangir Hussain (Wed 20 Jun 2018)

Match won by Neal Brooker. Result: 11-7,11-4,11-5.

Starting level for Neal Brooker: 8,399, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Jahangir Hussain: 4,569, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Neal Brooker to win as he is currently playing 84% better than Jahangir Hussain.

Neal Brooker won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Neal Brooker played 106% better than Jahangir Hussain in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Neal Brooker actually played at a level of 8,897 and Jahangir Hussain at a level of 4,313. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.9% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.3% and 4.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Neal Brooker changes to +4.3% and Jahangir Hussain changes to -4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Neal Brooker becomes +1.9% and for Jahangir Hussain becomes -2.1%.

Given Neal Brooker's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 24% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2018' so the adjustment for Neal Brooker is +1% and for Jahangir Hussain is -1.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Neal Brooker: 82%, Jahangir Hussain: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Neal Brooker: 77%, Jahangir Hussain: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Neal Brooker: 8,469, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Jahangir Hussain: 4,500, level confidence: 80%.