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Adrian Jones v Marcus Hayes (Mon 18 Jun 2018)

Match won by Marcus Hayes. Result: 2-11,4-11,7-11.

Starting level for Adrian Jones: 3,201, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Marcus Hayes: 8,873, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Marcus Hayes to win as he is currently playing 177% better than Adrian Jones.

Marcus Hayes won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Marcus Hayes played 154% better than Adrian Jones in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Marcus Hayes was taking it easy by anything up to 22%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 4,972 and 8,873 without affecting his level.

In this case, Marcus Hayes played at level 8,126 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Adrian Jones is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Marcus Hayes: 91%, Adrian Jones: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Marcus Hayes: 87%, Adrian Jones: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Adrian Jones: 3,196, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Marcus Hayes: 8,860, level confidence: 87%.