Achim Newrzella v Keith Timms (Tue 05 Jun 2018)
Match won by Keith Timms. Result: 11-8,5-11,4-11,11-7,9-11.
Starting level for
Achim Newrzella:
5,299, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for
Keith Timms:
9,496, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Keith Timms to win as he is currently playing
79% better than Achim Newrzella.
Keith Timms won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 20% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Keith Timms played
13% better than Achim Newrzella in this match.
As Keith Timms has played below his allowed range at 6,732, his level reduction is 13% before damping. On the assumption that Keith Timms would normally have been playing at level 8,638 (based on typical behaviour), Achim Newrzella played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 20%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.5% and 15% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Keith Timms changes to -7.1% and Achim Newrzella changes to +15%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Keith Timms becomes -2.5% and for Achim Newrzella becomes +5%.
Given Keith Timms's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 32% has been applied to his level change.
Given Achim Newrzella's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.4% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Middlesex Mens Summer League 2018' so the adjustment for Keith Timms is -1.2% and for Achim Newrzella is +3.2%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Keith Timms: 85%, Achim Newrzella: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Keith Timms: 67%, Achim Newrzella: 59%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Achim Newrzella:
5,480, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Keith Timms:
9,403, level confidence: 67%.