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Max Lee v Tsz Fung Yip (Thu 14 Jun 2018)

Match won by Max Lee. Result: 9-11,8-11,13-11,11-7,11-4.

Starting level for Max Lee: 42,382, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Tsz Fung Yip: 38,710, level confidence: 65%.
Max Lee to win as he is currently playing 9% better than Tsz Fung Yip.

Max Lee won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Max Lee played 12% better than Tsz Fung Yip in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Max Lee actually played at a level of 42,875 and Tsz Fung Yip at a level of 38,265. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Max Lee changes to +1.1% and Tsz Fung Yip changes to -1.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Max Lee becomes +0.4% and for Tsz Fung Yip becomes -0.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Hong Kong Nationals' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Max Lee: 80%, Tsz Fung Yip: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Max Lee: 79%, Tsz Fung Yip: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Max Lee: 42,431, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Tsz Fung Yip: 38,638, level confidence: 80%.