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Jahangir Hussain v Joe Blackmur (Thu 14 Jun 2018)

Match won by Joe Blackmur. Result: 4-11,1-11,9-11.

Starting level for Jahangir Hussain: 4,696, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Joe Blackmur: 7,808, level confidence: 60%.
Joe Blackmur to win as he is currently playing 66% better than Jahangir Hussain.

Joe Blackmur won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joe Blackmur played 136% better than Jahangir Hussain in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joe Blackmur actually played at a level of 9,297 and Jahangir Hussain at a level of 3,944. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joe Blackmur changes to +14% and Jahangir Hussain changes to -10.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joe Blackmur becomes +4.5% and for Jahangir Hussain becomes -4.1%.

Given Joe Blackmur's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 21% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2018' so the adjustment for Joe Blackmur is +2.4% and for Jahangir Hussain is -2.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joe Blackmur: 78%, Jahangir Hussain: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joe Blackmur: 65%, Jahangir Hussain: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jahangir Hussain: 4,569, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Joe Blackmur: 7,984, level confidence: 65%.