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Tim Dixon v Stuart Lipscombe (Thu 14 Jun 2018)

Match won by Tim Dixon. Result: 11-4,11-6,11-8.

Starting level for Tim Dixon: 8,617, level confidence: 46%.
Starting level for Stuart Lipscombe: 3,687, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Tim Dixon to win as he is currently playing 134% better than Stuart Lipscombe.

Tim Dixon won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tim Dixon played 83% better than Stuart Lipscombe in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Tim Dixon was taking it easy by anything up to 17%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 5,615 and 8,617 without affecting his level.

In this case, Tim Dixon played at level 6,967 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Tim Dixon would normally have been playing at level 7,181 (based on typical behaviour), Stuart Lipscombe played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tim Dixon changes to 0% and Stuart Lipscombe changes to +1.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tim Dixon becomes 0% and for Stuart Lipscombe becomes +0.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Suffolk Summer League 2018' so the adjustment for Tim Dixon is 0% and for Stuart Lipscombe is +0.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tim Dixon: 68%, Stuart Lipscombe: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tim Dixon: 60%, Stuart Lipscombe: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tim Dixon: 8,604, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Stuart Lipscombe: 3,699, level confidence: 80%.