SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Keith Timms v Nick Staunton (Wed 13 Jun 2018)

Match won by Keith Timms. Result: 8-11,11-6,11-7,16-18,11-3.

Starting level for Keith Timms: 8,842, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nick Staunton: 6,247, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Keith Timms to win as he is currently playing 42% better than Nick Staunton.

Keith Timms won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 27% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Keith Timms played 14% better than Nick Staunton in this match.

As Keith Timms has played below his allowed range at 7,597, his level reduction is 6.5% before damping. On the assumption that Keith Timms would normally have been playing at level 8,515 (based on typical behaviour), Nick Staunton played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.5% and 7.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Keith Timms changes to -5.5% and Nick Staunton changes to +7.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Keith Timms becomes -2.2% and for Nick Staunton becomes +2.9%.

Given Keith Timms's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 27% has been applied to his level change.

Given Nick Staunton's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.5% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Middlesex Mens Summer League 2018' so the adjustment for Keith Timms is -1.1% and for Nick Staunton is +1.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Keith Timms: 92%, Nick Staunton: 94%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Keith Timms: 82%, Nick Staunton: 84%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Keith Timms: 8,768, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Nick Staunton: 6,368, level confidence: 84%.