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James Clyne v Alex Preston (Tue 12 Jun 2018)

Match won by Alex Preston. Result: 8-15,13-15,15-17.

Starting level for James Clyne: 3,973, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Alex Preston: 6,762, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Alex Preston to win as he is currently playing 70% better than James Clyne.

Alex Preston won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 31% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alex Preston played 39% better than James Clyne in this match.

As Alex Preston has played below his allowed range at 5,556, his level reduction is 0.9% before damping. On the assumption that Alex Preston would normally have been playing at level 6,243 (based on typical behaviour), James Clyne played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.7% and 4.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alex Preston changes to -0.6% and James Clyne changes to +4.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alex Preston becomes -0.3% and for James Clyne becomes +2.5%.

Given Alex Preston's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 13% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2018' so the adjustment for Alex Preston is 0% and for James Clyne is +1.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alex Preston: 91%, James Clyne: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alex Preston: 82%, James Clyne: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Clyne: 4,030, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Alex Preston: 6,739, level confidence: 82%.