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Barrie McLelland v Matt Owen (Mon 11 Jun 2018)

Match won by Barrie McLelland. Result: 9-11,2-11,11-7,11-8,11-9.

Starting level for Barrie McLelland: 1,897, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Matt Owen: 2,628, level confidence: 56%.
Matt Owen to win as he is currently playing 39% better than Barrie McLelland.

Barrie McLelland won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 5% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Barrie McLelland played 6% better than Matt Owen in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Barrie McLelland actually played at a level of 2,303 and Matt Owen at a level of 2,164. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 18% and 18% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Barrie McLelland changes to +15% and Matt Owen changes to -18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Barrie McLelland becomes +6.7% and for Matt Owen becomes -7.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Warwickshire Summer League 2018' so the adjustment for Barrie McLelland is +4.4% and for Matt Owen is -4.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Barrie McLelland: 82%, Matt Owen: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Barrie McLelland: 68%, Matt Owen: 61%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Barrie McLelland: 1,977, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Matt Owen: 2,511, level confidence: 61%.