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Keith Timms v Phil Nightingale (Sat 09 Jun 2018)

Match won by Phil Nightingale. Result: 11-8,11-6,5-11,2-11,4-11.

Starting level for Keith Timms: 8,991, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Phil Nightingale: 9,719, level confidence: 65%.
Phil Nightingale to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Keith Timms.

Phil Nightingale won 60% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 42% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Phil Nightingale played 18% better than Keith Timms in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Phil Nightingale actually played at a level of 10,159 and Keith Timms at a level of 8,602. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.5% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Phil Nightingale changes to +4.4% and Keith Timms changes to -3.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Phil Nightingale becomes +1.8% and for Keith Timms becomes -1.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Karakal British Masters Open Championships 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Phil Nightingale: 81%, Keith Timms: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Phil Nightingale: 77%, Keith Timms: 85%.

Final level for Keith Timms: 8,842, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Phil Nightingale: 9,897, level confidence: 77%.