Keith Timms v Phil Nightingale (Sat 09 Jun 2018)
Match won by Phil Nightingale. Result: 11-8,11-6,5-11,2-11,4-11.
Starting level for
Keith Timms:
8,991, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Phil Nightingale:
9,719, level confidence: 65%.
Phil Nightingale to win as he is currently playing
8% better than Keith Timms.
Phil Nightingale won 60% of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 42% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Phil Nightingale played
18% better than Keith Timms in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Phil Nightingale actually played at a level of
10,159 and Keith Timms at a level of
8,602. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.5% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Phil Nightingale changes to +4.4% and Keith Timms changes to -3.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Phil Nightingale becomes +1.8% and for Keith Timms becomes -1.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Karakal British Masters Open Championships 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Phil Nightingale: 81%, Keith Timms: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Phil Nightingale: 77%, Keith Timms: 85%.
Final level for Keith Timms:
8,842, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Phil Nightingale:
9,897, level confidence: 77%.