Keith Timms v Alex Preston (Fri 08 Jun 2018)
Match won by Keith Timms. Result: 7-11,11-9,11-5,11-9.
Starting level for
Keith Timms:
9,204, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Alex Preston:
6,644, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Keith Timms to win as he is currently playing
39% better than Alex Preston.
Keith Timms won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Keith Timms played
23% better than Alex Preston in this match.
As Keith Timms has played below his allowed range at 8,371, his level reduction is 2.8% before damping. On the assumption that Keith Timms would normally have been playing at level 8,899 (based on typical behaviour), Alex Preston played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.5%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.4% and 3.8% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Keith Timms changes to -2.4% and Alex Preston changes to +3.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Keith Timms becomes -1.2% and for Alex Preston becomes +1.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Karakal British Masters Open Championships 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Keith Timms: 85%, Alex Preston: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Keith Timms: 80%, Alex Preston: 83%.
Final level for Keith Timms:
9,095, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Alex Preston:
6,762, level confidence: 83%.