SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Keith Timms v Alex Preston (Fri 08 Jun 2018)

Match won by Keith Timms. Result: 7-11,11-9,11-5,11-9.

Starting level for Keith Timms: 9,204, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Alex Preston: 6,644, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Keith Timms to win as he is currently playing 39% better than Alex Preston.

Keith Timms won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Keith Timms played 23% better than Alex Preston in this match.

As Keith Timms has played below his allowed range at 8,371, his level reduction is 2.8% before damping. On the assumption that Keith Timms would normally have been playing at level 8,899 (based on typical behaviour), Alex Preston played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.4% and 3.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Keith Timms changes to -2.4% and Alex Preston changes to +3.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Keith Timms becomes -1.2% and for Alex Preston becomes +1.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Karakal British Masters Open Championships 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Keith Timms: 85%, Alex Preston: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Keith Timms: 80%, Alex Preston: 83%.

Final level for Keith Timms: 9,095, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Alex Preston: 6,762, level confidence: 83%.