Marcus Hayes v Ross Gore (Fri 08 Jun 2018)
Match won by Ross Gore. Result: 9-11,9-11,5-11.
Starting level for
Marcus Hayes:
9,103, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Ross Gore:
11,424, level confidence: 67%.
Ross Gore to win as he is currently playing
25% better than Marcus Hayes.
Ross Gore won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ross Gore played
47% better than Marcus Hayes in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ross Gore actually played at a level of
12,376 and Marcus Hayes at a level of
8,403. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.3% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.4% and 7.4% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ross Gore changes to +7.4% and Marcus Hayes changes to -5.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ross Gore becomes +2.5% and for Marcus Hayes becomes -2.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Karakal British Masters Open Championships 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ross Gore: 82%, Marcus Hayes: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ross Gore: 76%, Marcus Hayes: 84%.
Final level for Marcus Hayes:
8,902, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Ross Gore:
11,708, level confidence: 76%.