Paul Wallace v Phil Nightingale (Thu 07 Jun 2018)
Match won by Phil Nightingale. Result: 6-11,9-11,6-11.
Starting level for
Paul Wallace:
6,304, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Phil Nightingale:
9,316, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Phil Nightingale to win as he is currently playing
48% better than Paul Wallace.
Phil Nightingale won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Phil Nightingale played
56% better than Paul Wallace in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Phil Nightingale actually played at a level of
9,585 and Paul Wallace at a level of
6,127. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.9% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.4% and 2.4% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Phil Nightingale changes to +2.4% and Paul Wallace changes to -2.2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Phil Nightingale becomes +1.2% and for Paul Wallace becomes -1.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Karakal British Masters Open Championships 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Phil Nightingale: 87%, Paul Wallace: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Phil Nightingale: 84%, Paul Wallace: 87%.
Final level for Paul Wallace:
6,228, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Phil Nightingale:
9,427, level confidence: 84%.