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Paul Wallace v Phil Nightingale (Thu 07 Jun 2018)

Match won by Phil Nightingale. Result: 6-11,9-11,6-11.

Starting level for Paul Wallace: 6,304, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Phil Nightingale: 9,316, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Phil Nightingale to win as he is currently playing 48% better than Paul Wallace.

Phil Nightingale won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Phil Nightingale played 56% better than Paul Wallace in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Phil Nightingale actually played at a level of 9,585 and Paul Wallace at a level of 6,127. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.9% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.4% and 2.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Phil Nightingale changes to +2.4% and Paul Wallace changes to -2.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Phil Nightingale becomes +1.2% and for Paul Wallace becomes -1.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Karakal British Masters Open Championships 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Phil Nightingale: 87%, Paul Wallace: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Phil Nightingale: 84%, Paul Wallace: 87%.

Final level for Paul Wallace: 6,228, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Phil Nightingale: 9,427, level confidence: 84%.