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Neil Baker v Alex Preston (Thu 07 Jun 2018)

Match won by Alex Preston. Result: 8-11,11-2,4-11,4-11.

Starting level for Neil Baker: 6,097, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Alex Preston: 6,331, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Alex Preston to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Neil Baker.

Alex Preston won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alex Preston played 27% better than Neil Baker in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alex Preston actually played at a level of 6,989 and Neil Baker at a level of 5,523. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.4% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alex Preston changes to +10.2% and Neil Baker changes to -10.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alex Preston becomes +3.6% and for Neil Baker becomes -3.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Karakal British Masters Open Championships 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alex Preston: 86%, Neil Baker: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alex Preston: 78%, Neil Baker: 79%.

A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Neil Baker: 5,975, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Alex Preston: 6,557, level confidence: 78%.