SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Marcus Hayes v Colin Griggs (Wed 06 Jun 2018)

Match won by Marcus Hayes. Result: 11-7,11-6,11-3.

Starting level for Marcus Hayes: 8,755, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Colin Griggs: 5,109, level confidence: 57%.
Marcus Hayes to win as he is currently playing 71% better than Colin Griggs.

Marcus Hayes won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Marcus Hayes played 106% better than Colin Griggs in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Marcus Hayes actually played at a level of 9,605 and Colin Griggs at a level of 4,657. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.7% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.3% and 7.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Marcus Hayes changes to +6.6% and Colin Griggs changes to -7.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Marcus Hayes becomes +2.4% and for Colin Griggs becomes -3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Karakal British Masters Open Championships 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Marcus Hayes: 80%, Colin Griggs: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Marcus Hayes: 73%, Colin Griggs: 69%.

Final level for Marcus Hayes: 8,967, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Colin Griggs: 4,960, level confidence: 69%.