Marcus Hayes v Colin Griggs (Wed 06 Jun 2018)
Match won by Marcus Hayes. Result: 11-7,11-6,11-3.
Starting level for
Marcus Hayes:
8,755, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for
Colin Griggs:
5,109, level confidence: 57%.
Marcus Hayes to win as he is currently playing
71% better than Colin Griggs.
Marcus Hayes won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Marcus Hayes played
106% better than Colin Griggs in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Marcus Hayes actually played at a level of
9,605 and Colin Griggs at a level of
4,657. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.7% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.3% and 7.3% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Marcus Hayes changes to +6.6% and Colin Griggs changes to -7.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Marcus Hayes becomes +2.4% and for Colin Griggs becomes -3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Karakal British Masters Open Championships 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Marcus Hayes: 80%, Colin Griggs: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Marcus Hayes: 73%, Colin Griggs: 69%.
Final level for Marcus Hayes:
8,967, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Colin Griggs:
4,960, level confidence: 69%.