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Alex Preston v Jago Nardelli (Tue 29 May 2018)

Match won by Alex Preston. Result: 15-6,14-16,13-15,15-7,15-8.

Starting level for Alex Preston: 6,064, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Jago Nardelli: 5,297, level confidence: 35%.
Alex Preston to win as he is currently playing 14% better than Jago Nardelli.

Alex Preston won 60% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alex Preston played 17% better than Jago Nardelli in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alex Preston actually played at a level of 6,133 and Jago Nardelli at a level of 5,237. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.1% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alex Preston changes to +0.6% and Jago Nardelli changes to -1.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alex Preston becomes +0.3% and for Jago Nardelli becomes -0.6%.

Given Alex Preston's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 8.2% has been applied to his level change.

Given Jago Nardelli's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.3% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2018' so the adjustment for Alex Preston is 0% and for Jago Nardelli is -0.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alex Preston: 80%, Jago Nardelli: 60%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alex Preston: 80%, Jago Nardelli: 59%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alex Preston: 6,067, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Jago Nardelli: 5,268, level confidence: 59%.