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Natalie Townsend v Barrie McLelland (Mon 04 Jun 2018)

Match won by Barrie McLelland. Result: 9-11,10-12,5-11.

Starting level for Natalie Townsend: 1,858, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Barrie McLelland: 1,810, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Natalie Townsend to win as she is currently playing 3% better than Barrie McLelland.

Barrie McLelland won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 42% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Barrie McLelland played 46% better than Natalie Townsend in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Barrie McLelland actually played at a level of 2,216 and Natalie Townsend at a level of 1,517. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Barrie McLelland changes to +17% and Natalie Townsend changes to -22%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Barrie McLelland becomes +7.7% and for Natalie Townsend becomes -9.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Warwickshire Summer League 2018' so the adjustment for Barrie McLelland is +5% and for Natalie Townsend is -6%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Natalie Townsend is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Barrie McLelland: 86%, Natalie Townsend: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Barrie McLelland: 70%, Natalie Townsend: 62%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Natalie Townsend: 1,767, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Barrie McLelland: 1,898, level confidence: 70%.