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Jahangir Hussain v Alex Cope (Thu 24 May 2018)

Match won by Alex Cope. Result: 11-5,13-11,8-11,4-11,6-11.

Starting level for Jahangir Hussain: 4,699, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Alex Cope: 6,427, level confidence: 33%.
Alex Cope to win as he is currently playing 37% better than Jahangir Hussain.

Alex Cope won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alex Cope played 12% better than Jahangir Hussain in this match.

As Alex Cope has played below his allowed range at 5,597, his level reduction is 6.7% before damping. On the assumption that Alex Cope would normally have been playing at level 6,229 (based on typical behaviour), Jahangir Hussain played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.7% and 7.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alex Cope changes to -5.7% and Jahangir Hussain changes to +3.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alex Cope becomes -2.4% and for Jahangir Hussain becomes +2%.

Given Alex Cope's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 10.9% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2018' so the adjustment for Alex Cope is -1.4% and for Jahangir Hussain is +1.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alex Cope: 57%, Jahangir Hussain: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alex Cope: 52%, Jahangir Hussain: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jahangir Hussain: 4,753, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Alex Cope: 6,329, level confidence: 52%.