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Barrie McLelland v Jacob Sutton (Mon 21 May 2018)

Match won by Jacob Sutton. Result: 4-11,4-11,11-8,9-11.

Starting level for Barrie McLelland: 1,862, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jacob Sutton: 2,071, level confidence: 47%.
Jacob Sutton to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Barrie McLelland.

Jacob Sutton won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 46% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jacob Sutton played 32% better than Barrie McLelland in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jacob Sutton actually played at a level of 2,257 and Barrie McLelland at a level of 1,709. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jacob Sutton changes to +8.5% and Barrie McLelland changes to -5.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jacob Sutton becomes +4.3% and for Barrie McLelland becomes -3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Warwickshire Summer League 2018' so the adjustment for Jacob Sutton is +2.8% and for Barrie McLelland is -2.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jacob Sutton: 68%, Barrie McLelland: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jacob Sutton: 63%, Barrie McLelland: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Barrie McLelland: 1,820, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Jacob Sutton: 2,126, level confidence: 63%.