Miguel Rodriguez v Ramy Ashour (Wed 16 May 2018)
Match won by Miguel Rodriguez. Result: 7-11,11-8,11-2,11-4.
Starting level for
Miguel Rodriguez:
49,002, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Ramy Ashour:
64,428, level confidence: 49%.
Ramy Ashour to win as he is currently playing
31% better than Miguel Rodriguez.
Miguel Rodriguez won 75% of the games and 62% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 60% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Miguel Rodriguez played
37% better than Ramy Ashour in this match. An upset!
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Miguel Rodriguez actually played at a level of
65,658 and Ramy Ashour at a level of
48,084. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 34% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 29% and 29% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Miguel Rodriguez changes to +19% and Ramy Ashour changes to -29%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Miguel Rodriguez becomes +3.8% and for Ramy Ashour becomes -5.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA British Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Ramy Ashour is limited to -4.6% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Miguel Rodriguez: 87%, Ramy Ashour: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Miguel Rodriguez: 65%, Ramy Ashour: 52%.
A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Miguel Rodriguez:
50,702, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Ramy Ashour:
62,862, level confidence: 52%.