Saurav Ghosal v Greg Lobban (Wed 16 May 2018)
Match won by Saurav Ghosal. Result: 11-9,8-11,6-11,11-7,11-3.
Starting level for
Saurav Ghosal:
41,459, level confidence: 50%.
Starting level for
Greg Lobban:
37,056, level confidence: 63%.
Saurav Ghosal to win as he is currently playing
12% better than Greg Lobban.
Saurav Ghosal won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Saurav Ghosal played
11% better than Greg Lobban in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Saurav Ghosal actually played at a level of
41,325 and Greg Lobban at a level of
37,176. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.3% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Saurav Ghosal changes to -0.3% and Greg Lobban changes to 0%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Saurav Ghosal becomes -0.1% and for Greg Lobban becomes 0%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA British Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Saurav Ghosal: 70%, Greg Lobban: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Saurav Ghosal: 70%, Greg Lobban: 79%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Saurav Ghosal:
41,290, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Greg Lobban:
37,150, level confidence: 79%.